Northwest Minnesota Job Growth: Trends Through 2026

By
Image
Minnesota regional map with Northwest MN area highlighted and words Northwest Minnesota Regional Labor Market Information Blog

Northwest Minnesota is projected to attain 4.2 percent job growth between 2016 and 2026. That places Northwest in the middle of the pack for planning regions in terms of regional employment growth, well ahead of slower-growing regions like Southwest and Northeast, but well behind fast-growing regions like the 7-county Twin Cities metro area and Central Minnesota. Overall state employment during this time period is projected to grow 5.9 percent, while projected U.S. growth rate was 7.4% for 2016-2026. (See Figure 1).

graphic of projected growth by Minnesota region, 2016-2026. For more information contact Erik White at 218-333-8253.

A closer look at industry projections show a more nuanced picture for Northwest Minnesota’s future economy.  The region is expected to expand by 10,961 jobs by 2026, led by considerable increases in the health care and social assistance industry.  This sector is projected to add 3,707 jobs by 2026, a 10.3 percent growth rate.  The next leading industry is manufacturing, which is expected to grow by 6.6 percent, or an increase of 1,885 jobs over the next 10 years.  Both of these industries have average annual wages that are higher than the total for all industries.  The wholesale trade and construction industries are also higher paying sectors that are projected to grow by more than 1,000 jobs. 

At the other end of the spectrum, the retail trade industry is projected to lose 1,168 jobs by 2026, a 4.1 percent decrease in employment.  With the rise of online sales, brick and mortar retail stores are struggling and this is expected to continue into the foreseeable future.  Educational services, which is the third largest employing industry in Northwest Minnesota, is also expected to decline in employment, with a loss of 337 jobs (Table 1).

Table 1.  Northwest Minnesota's Industry Employment Projections 2016-2026

NAICS Code

Title

Average Annual Wage

Estimated Employment, 2016

Projected Employment, 2026

Percent Change

Total Change

0

Total, All Industries

$40,768

262,786

273,747

+4.2%

+10,961

62

Health Care and Social Assistance

$43,888

36,018

39,725

+10.3%

+3,707

31

Manufacturing

$52,260

28,471

30,356

+6.6%

+1,885

56

Admin. Support and Waste Mgmt. Services

$34,424

5,031

6,427

+27.7%

+1,396

11

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

$41,340

5,949

7,221

+21.4%

+1,272

42

Wholesale Trade

$55,484

11,833

13,030

+10.1%

+1,197

23

Construction

$51,792

10,252

11,287

+10.1%

+1,035

9

Public Administration

$47,476

21,609

22,418

+3.7%

+809

72

Accommodation and Food Services

$15,964

20,621

21,205

+2.8%

+584

54

Professional and Technical Services

$52,988

4,723

5,075

+7.5%

+352

48

Transportation and Warehousing

$42,848

7,030

7,246

+3.1%

+216

52

Finance and Insurance

$56,160

5,939

6,105

+2.8%

+166

53

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

$32,604

1,396

1,448

+3.7%

+52

55

Management of Companies and Enterprises

$83,096

930

970

+4.3%

+40

71

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

$21,684

5,001

5,001

0.0%

0

21

Mining

$55,796

255

253

-0.8%

-2

81

Other Services, Ex. Public Admin

$22,620

10,328

10,314

-0.1%

-14

22

Utilities

$87,308

1,193

1,146

-3.9%

-47

51

Information

$45,188

2,660

2,599

-2.3%

-61

61

Educational Services

$42,276

23,095

22,758

-1.5%

-337

44

Retail Trade

$26,780

28,429

27,261

-4.1%

-1,168

Source:  DEED's Employment Outlook and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

 

Northwest Minnesota's industry employment projections 2016-2026. For more information contact Erik White at 218-333-8253.

 

Overall, 13 of the 20 industry sectors in Northwest Minnesota are projected to grow.  Data shows that health care and manufacturing will lead the way in economic growth in the region while some sectors, like retail trade, will deal with economic realities and respond with fewer employment opportunities. 

Underlying demographic trends, namely the aging of the population and limited immigration, will restrain the growth potential of the region’s economy. Yet, there remains plenty of opportunity in tomorrow’s economy, according to DEED’s recently updated Employment Outlook, which  includes employment projections that span from 2016 to 2026 and are compiled by both occupation and industry for the state and for the six regional planning areas. 

For more information, contact Erik White, Northwest labor market analyst, at 218-333-8253

 

Industry:
Region: